留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例

魏绍蕾 黄学斌 李军 苏映宏 潘立生

魏绍蕾, 黄学斌, 李军, 苏映宏, 潘立生. 基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
引用本文: 魏绍蕾, 黄学斌, 李军, 苏映宏, 潘立生. 基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
WEI Shaolei, HUANG Xuebin, LI Jun, SU Yinghong, PAN Lisheng. Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
Citation: WEI Shaolei, HUANG Xuebin, LI Jun, SU Yinghong, PAN Lisheng. Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161

基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
基金项目: 

国家科技重大专项“页岩气地质建模与可采储量评价技术研究” 2016ZX05060001-033

详细信息
    作者简介:

    魏绍蕾(1987-), 女, 博士, 高级工程师, 从事储量评估和油气田开发规划工作。E-mail: leisurewin@163.com

  • 中图分类号: TE155

Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field

  • 摘要: 页岩储层大面积连续分布的地质特征和“工厂化”作业的工程特性,使得同一区域内页岩气单井最终可采量(Estimated Ultimate Reserve,EUR)的统计分布具有可重复性,是概率法计算EUR的基础。常规确定性方法只能给出一个储量值,概率法能够计算储量的概率分布。四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期工程采用600 m井距开发,井间动用程度不高;为了提高气藏采收率,开展了焦石坝加密井网调整。采用概率法对加密调整方案的最终可采量进行计算,通过对焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井的地质、工程及试气情况的分析,筛选合适的类比井组,建立类比井组的EUR概率分布;借助蒙特卡洛算法,生成加密井网内页岩气平均单井EUR的概率分布,确定不同概率下的储量大小;借鉴类比井组动态储量评估参数,确定了加密井网内不同水平段长度页岩气井的典型井曲线。采用概率法实现了焦石坝气田加密井网内生产动态和最终可采量的预测,可为下一步开发方案部署和投资安排提供科学决策依据。

     

  • 图  1  概率法预测EUR的流程

    Figure  1.  Flow chart of EUR prediction using a probability method

    图  2  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网井位分布示意

    Figure  2.  Well locations of the infill well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas reservoir, Sichuan Basin

    图  3  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气单井单位长度测试参数F与单位长度EUR关系

    Figure  3.  Relationship between EUR and AOF per unit length for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  4  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气单井单位长度测试参数F累计概率分布Profit图

    Figure  4.  Cumulative probability diagram of AOF per unit length for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  5  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井分组

    Figure  5.  Four sub-sections for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  6  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井分区后的单位长度无阻流量概率分布Profit图

    Figure  6.  Cumulative probability diagram of AOF per unit length for the four sub-sections for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  7  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期产建区类比井组概率分布

    Figure  7.  Cumulative probability plots of EUR per unit length for analog well groups for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  8  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网平均单位长度EUR概率分布

    Figure  8.  Probability plots of EUR per unit length for infilled well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  9  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网页岩气井水平段长度分布及单井EUR

    Figure  9.  Probability plots of well length for infilled well pattern and EUR prediction for different well lengths in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  10  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网不同水平段长度下的典型井曲线

    Figure  10.  Typical well curves for different well lengths of infilled well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  11  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田不同类比井组下单井长度EUR概率分布对比

    Figure  11.  Probability distribution of EUR per unit well length under two cases in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  12  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田不同完钻井数目下单位长度EUR概率分布对比

    Figure  12.  Probability distribution of EUR per unit well length for different numbers of drilled wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    表  1  不同P10/P90比值下所要求的最少类比井数目

    Table  1.   Least numbers of analogy wells under different P10/P90

    P10/P90 最小类比井数 备注
    2 15 很难出现
    3 35 常见
    4 60 常见
    5 75 常见
    6 100 常见
    8 130 常见
    10 170 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    15 290 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    20 420 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    30 670 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] 贾承造. 美国SEC油气储量评估方法[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2004.

    JIA Chengzao. SEC estimation approach for oil & gas reserves[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2004.
    [2] 朱维耀, 亓倩, 马千, 等. 页岩气不稳定渗流压力传播规律和数学模型[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2016, 43(2): 261-267. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201602014.htm

    ZHU Weiyao, QI Qian, MA Qian, et al. Unstable seepage modeling and pressure propagation of shale gas reservoirs[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2016, 43(2): 261-267. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201602014.htm
    [3] 王勇, 张林霞, 徐剑良, 等. 页岩气井产量递减分析经验法优化应用研究[J]. 石油化工应用, 2020, 39(1): 8-12. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NXSH202001003.htm

    WANG Yong, ZHANG Linxia, XU Jianliang, et al. Empirical method for shale gas well production decline analysis optimization applied research[J]. Petrochemical Industry Application, 2020, 39(1): 8-12. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NXSH202001003.htm
    [4] 汤亚顽. 涪陵页岩气田可采储量评价方法优选[J]. 江汉石油科技, 2019, 29(4): 23-34.

    TANG Yawan. Optimization of recoverable reserves assessment for Fuling shale gas field[J]. Jianghan Petroleum Science and Technology, 2019, 29(4): 23-34.
    [5] 覃利娟. 概率法在油气储量不确定性分析中的应用[J]. 断块油气田, 2019, 26(6): 723-727. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT201906010.htm

    QIN Lijuan. Application of probability method to uncertainty analysis of oil and gas reserves[J]. Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field, 2019, 26(6): 723-727. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT201906010.htm
    [6] 王永祥, 李建忠. 非常规油气区带未开发储量评估指南[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2012.

    WANG Yongxiang, LI Jianzhong. Gudelines for the practical evaluation of undeveloped reserves in resource plays[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2012.
    [7] 王永祥, 张君峰, 谢锦龙, 等. 《石油资源管理体系应用指南》导读[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2012.

    WANG Yongxiang, ZHANG Junfeng, XIE Jinlong, et al. A conduct on guidelines for application of the petroleum resources management system[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2012.
    [8] SPE, AAPG, WPC, et al. Guidelines for application of the petroleum resources management system[M]. Huston: Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2011.
    [9] 董大忠, 邹才能, 杨桦, 等. 中国页岩气勘探开发进展与发展前景[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(S1): 107-114. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB2012S1015.htm

    DONG Dazhong, ZOU Caineng, YANG Hua, et al. Progress and prospects of shale gas exploration and development in China[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2012, 33(S1): 107-114. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB2012S1015.htm
    [10] 马永生, 蔡勋育, 赵培荣. 中国页岩气勘探开发理论认识与实践[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2018, 45(4): 561-574. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201804004.htm

    MA Yongsheng, CAI Xunyu, ZHAO Peirong. China's shale gas exploration and development: understanding and practice[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2018, 45(4): 561-574. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201804004.htm
    [11] 邹才能, 陶士振, 袁选俊, 等. "连续型"油气藏及其在全球的重要性: 成藏、分布与评价[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2009, 36(6): 669-682. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200906003.htm

    ZOU Caineng, TAO Shizhen, YUAN Xuanjun, et al. Global importance of "continuous" petroleum reservoirs: accumulation, distribution and evaluation[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2009, 36(6): 669-682. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200906003.htm
    [12] 易积正, 王超. 四川盆地焦石坝地区龙马溪组海相页岩储层非均质性特征[J]. 石油实验地质, 2018, 40(1): 13-19. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801013

    YI Jizheng, WANG Chao. Differential pore development characteristics in various shale lithofacies of Longmaxi Formation in Jiaoshiba area, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2018, 40(1): 13-19. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801013
    [13] 陈劲松, 韩洪宝, 年静波, 等. 概率法在页岩气未开发最终可采量评估中的应用: 以北美某成熟页岩气区块为例[J]. 天然气工业, 2018, 38(7): 52-58. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG201807010.htm

    CHEN Jinsong, HAN Hongbao, NIAN Jingbo, et al. Application of the probability method to undeveloped EUR assessment of shale gas: a case study on one mature shale gas block in North America[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2018, 38(7): 52-58. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG201807010.htm
    [14] 黄昌武. 页岩油气压裂理论方法和技术体系初步形成[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(4): 443. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201204008.htm

    HUANG Changwu. Theoretical methodology and technical system for shale reservoir fracturing[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(4): 443. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201204008.htm
    [15] 吴奇, 胥云, 王晓泉, 等. 非常规油气藏体积改造技术: 内涵、优化设计与实现[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(3): 352-358. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201203013.htm

    WU Qi, XU Yun, WANG Xiaoquan, et al. Volume fracturing techno-logy of unconventional reservoirs: connotation, optimization design and implementation[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(3): 352-358. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201203013.htm
    [16] 王玉满, 董大忠, 李建忠, 等. 川南下志留统龙马溪组页岩气储层特征[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(4): 551-561. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201204004.htm

    WANG Yuman, DONG Dazhong, LI Jianzhong, et al. Reservoir characteristics of shale gas in Longmaxi Formation of the Lower Silurian, southern Sichuan[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2012, 33(4): 551-561. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201204004.htm
    [17] 郭彤楼, 张汉荣. 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田形成与富集高产模式[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2014, 41(1): 28-36. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201401003.htm

    GUO Tonglou, ZHANG Hanrong. Formation and enrichment mode of Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2014, 41(1): 28-36. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201401003.htm
    [18] 刘智颖, 张柏桥, 许巍, 等. 焦石坝地区页岩Cole-Cole模型参数的快速计算方法[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2020, 10(5): 42-48. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202005009.htm

    LIU Zhiying, ZHANG Baiqiao, XU Wei, et al. A fast computing method for rock electric parameters of Cole-Cole model in Jiaoshiba zone[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2020, 10(5): 42-48. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202005009.htm
    [19] 李金磊, 尹成, 王明飞, 等. 四川盆地涪陵焦石坝地区保存条件差异性分析[J]. 石油实验地质, 2019, 41(3): 341-347. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201903341

    LI Jinlei, YIN Cheng, WANG Mingfei, et al. Preservation condition differences in Jiaoshiba area, Fuling, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2019, 41(3): 341-347. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201903341
    [20] 陈新军, 包书景, 侯读杰, 等. 页岩气资源评价方法与关键参数探讨[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(5): 566-571. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201205008.htm

    CHEN Xinjun, BAO Shujing, HOU Dujie, et al. Methods and key parameters of shale gas resources evaluation[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(5): 566-571. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201205008.htm
    [21] 方栋梁, 孟志勇. 页岩气富集高产主控因素分析: 以四川盆地涪陵地区五峰组—龙马溪组一段页岩为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2020, 42(1): 37-41. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202001037

    FANG Dongliang, MENG Zhiyong. Main controlling factors of shale gas enrichment and high yield: a case study of Wufeng-Longmaxi formations in Fuling area, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2020, 42(1): 37-41. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202001037
    [22] 胡德高, 刘超. 四川盆地涪陵页岩气田单井可压性地质因素研究[J]. 石油实验地质, 2018, 40(1): 20-24. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801020

    HU Degao, LIU Chao. Geological factors of well fracability in Fuling shale gas field, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2018, 40(1): 20-24. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801020
    [23] 张汉荣, 王强, 倪楷, 等. 川东南五峰—龙马溪组页岩储层六性特征及主控因素分析[J]. 石油实验地质, 2016, 38(3): 320-325. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201603320

    ZHANG Hanrong, WANG Qiang, NI Kai, et al. Six characteristics and main controlling factors of shale reservoirs in the Wufeng-Longmaxi formations, southeastern Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2016, 38(3): 320-325. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201603320
    [24] 庞河清, 熊亮, 魏力民, 等. 川南深层页岩气富集高产主要地质因素分析: 以威荣页岩气田为例[J]. 天然气工业, 2019, 39(S1): 78-84. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG2019S1014.htm

    PANG Heqing, XIONG Liang, WEI Limin, et al. Analysis of geolo-gical factors for high productivity in Chuannan deep shale gas reservoirs: taking Weirong shale gas field as an example[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2019, 39(S1): 78-84. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG2019S1014.htm
    [25] 刘华, 王卫红, 王妍妍, 等. 页岩气井产能表征方法研究[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2019, 9(5): 63-69. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ201905008.htm

    LIU Hua, WANG Weihong, WANG Yanyan, et al. Productivity characterization method of shale gas wells[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2019, 9(5): 63-69. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ201905008.htm
    [26] 熊小林. 威远页岩气井EUR主控因素量化评价研究[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2019, 24(4): 532-538. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201904013.htm

    XIONG Xiaolin. Quantitative evaluation of controlling factors on EUR of shale gas wells in Weiyuan block[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(4): 532-538. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201904013.htm
    [27] 宋振响, 徐旭辉, 王保华, 等. 页岩气资源评价方法研究进展与发展方向[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2020, 41(5): 1038-1047. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202005015.htm

    Song Zhenxiang, Xu Xuhui, Wang Baohua, et al. Advances in shale gas resource assessment methods and their future evolvement[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2020, 41(5): 1038-1047. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202005015.htm
  • 加载中
图(12) / 表(1)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  304
  • HTML全文浏览量:  63
  • PDF下载量:  95
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-05-28
  • 修回日期:  2020-12-16
  • 刊出日期:  2021-01-28

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回