METHODOLOGY OF ESTIMATING THE PROSPECTS OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES
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摘要: 油气资源的远景预测有两个引人注目的趋势,即由定性预测向定量预测发展及越来越重视方法学的研究。以往的预测工作更多地是注意了各种各样预测方法的研究。但由于地质情况极为复杂,资料的多少和可利用程度的不同,使得众多的方法不可避免地带有很大的局限性。有的方法在这里用效果较好,到那里效果就不好,有的在这种情况下能用,而在另外的情况下就不适用。由此,人们在近年来已逐渐从方法学的理论高度来研究预测的方法。Abstract: The methodology of estimating oil and gas resources has been widely investigated only in recent years. Now, the prospects of oil and gas resources have conspicuously become the most important research project. The methodology does not deal with concrete methods of estimation, but examines the valuation of the various methods of estimation under consideration from the overall viewpoint of searching for oil and gas resources. The contents of the research in methodology of estimation are discussed, and the core of such a matter is bow to establish an estimation system. The methodology concerning how to define an estimating problem, to divide estimated objects, to use various kinds of estimating method properly, and to improve progressively the estimation system is discussed. The evaluation method by specialists and the Monte Carlo method can play an important role in establishing an estimation system.
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