A new method for the evaluation of the utilization potential of proved undeveloped reserves and its application: a case study of Y reservoir
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摘要: 目前探明未开发储量大多是多年筛选剩下的低品位储量，在现有的经济和技术条件下整体有效动用难度大，已有的方法多为评价整体的动用潜力，其已不再适宜于目前探明未开发储量的动用潜力评价。以Y油藏为例，根据油藏参数空间分布的非均质性、开发技术的可选择性及经济参数的不确定性特点，应用数值模拟手段建立不同开发技术下单井控制可采储量预测模型，结合单井控制可采储量主控因素的概率分布特征，计算不同开发技术下单井控制可采储量概率分布，同时结合不同技术经济条件下单井控制可采储量经济界限，得到不同技术经济条件下可动概率，进一步计算得到地质储量可动潜力。实例应用表明，本方法计算的可动潜力储量与实际动用储量符合率达97.2%，准确性高，可以满足矿场需求，研究成果为探明未开发储量的可动潜力评价提供了有效方法。Abstract: Most of the proven undeveloped reserves are presently low-grade ones. Overall effective utilization is difficult with current economic and technical conditions. Most of the existing methods evaluate overall utilization potential, which is no longer suitable for evaluating the utilization potential of currently-proven undeveloped reserves. In this paper, a case study has been carried out in Y reservoir. According to the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of reservoir parameters, the selectivity of development technology and the uncertainty of economic parameters, a prediction model of single-well-controlled recoverable reserves under different development technologies is built. Combined with the economic limits of single-well-controlled recoverable reserves under different technical and economic conditions, movable probability can be obtained, and the movable potential of geological reserves can be further calculated. Field application shows that the coincidence rate of the movable potential reserves calculated by the method in this paper and the actual produced reserves reaches 97.2%, which has high accuracy and can meet the needs of field. The research in this paper provides an effective method for the evaluation of the potential of undeveloped reserves.
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图 1 不同开发技术下单井控制可采储量政策界限
Figure 1. Boundaries for single-well-controlled recoverable reserves under different technical conditions
图 2 不同投资成本水平条件下直井常规压裂技术下单井控制可采储量政策界限
Figure 2. Boundaries for single-well-controlled recoverable reserves under different CAPEX and OPEX conditions
图 3 不同开发技术下单控可采储量概率分布
Figure 3. Probability distribution of single-well-controlled recoverable reserves under different technical conditions
图 4 不同开发技术下单控可采储量累积概率分布
Figure 4. Cumulative probability distribution of single-well-controlled recoverable reserves under different technical conditions
表 1 Y区块不同开发技术下可动用潜力储量统计
Table 1. Statistics of available potential reserves under different technical conditions in block Y
技术类别 单井控制可采储量经济界限/104 t 单井控制可采储量大于经济界限概率/% 可动用潜力储量/104 t 直井常规压裂 0.89 17.9 539 直井大型压裂 1.04 32.3 973 水平井常规压裂 1.55 23.9 720 水平井体积压裂 1.85 34.7 1 045 注：油价40＄/BBL，投资下降20%。 
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