页岩油资源规模分布模型及敏感性研究

卢振东; 刘成林; 曾晓祥; 阳宏; 臧起彪; 吴育平; 李国雄; 冯德浩

doi:10.11781/sysydz202204730

页岩油资源规模分布模型及敏感性研究

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202204730

卢振东^{1, 2,},
刘成林^{1, 2, ,},
曾晓祥^{1, 2},
阳宏^{1, 2},
臧起彪^{1, 2},
吴育平^{1, 2},
李国雄^{1, 2},
冯德浩^{1, 2}

1.
油气资源与探测国家重点实验室, 北京 102249
2.
中国石油大学地球科学学院, 北京 102249

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41872127

详细信息

作者简介:
卢振东(1997—), 男, 在读硕士研究生, 从事石油地质勘探与资源评价。E-mail: Luzhd2019@163.com

通讯作者:
刘成林(1970—), 男, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 从事油气地球化学与资源评价、非常规油气地质研究和教学工作。E-mail: liucl@cup.edu.cn

中图分类号: TE155
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- 文章访问数: 310
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-31
- 修回日期: 2022-06-07
- 刊出日期: 2022-07-28

Shale oil size distribution models and their sensitivities

LU Zhendong^{1, 2
,},
LIU Chenglin^{1, 2
, ,},
ZENG Xiaoxiang^{1, 2},
YANG Hong^{1, 2},
ZANG Qibiao^{1, 2},
WU Yuping^{1, 2},
LI Guoxiong^{1, 2},
FENG Dehao^{1, 2}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Resources and Exploration, Beijing 102249, China
2.
School of Earth Sciences, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China

摘要

摘要: 评价非常规油气资源一般采用类比法、统计法和成因法，在不断创新评价方法的同时，如何将常规油气资源评价方法改进，并应用于非常规资源评价是目前研究的一个重点和难点。以井为单元，将单井估算最终可采油气量(EUR)作为单元油气储量，建立帕累托分布模型，利用随机取样和偏态抽样原理编写程序，分析自然总体个数、形状参数和勘探系数对模型的敏感性，建立了新的页岩油资源规模分布法。该方法应用于鄂尔多斯盆地合水地区X230井区页岩油资源评价，发现数量影响油藏规模分布形状参数的大小和离散程度，当油藏发现个数大于300个时，分布模型趋于稳定；而分布模型对勘探系数的敏感性很小，这是划分EUR为评价单元的局限性所致，因为这种划分方法不存在真正意义上的“大油藏”。通过自然总体个数随形状因子的变化，确定截断点对应的个数，即所有井EUR的总和为该区的可采资源量，为6.72×10⁶ t，这与油气资源丰度法评价结果相吻合。改善后的页岩油资源规模分布法可为非常规油气资源评价提供指导。
- 帕累托分布模型 /
- 形状参数 /
- 敏感性 /
- 资源评价 /
- 页岩油 /
- 鄂尔多斯盆地
Abstract: With the rapid development of unconventional oil and gas resources, the demand for corresponding evaluation methods is increasing. At present, the evaluation methods for unconventional oil and gas resources are divided into analogy, statistical and genetic method. While constantly innovating evaluation methods, how to improve conventional methods and apply them to unconventional resource evaluation is also a focus and difficulty in current research. Taking a well as an unit and the EUR of the well as the unit's oil or gas reserves, a Pareto distribution model was established, and a program was compiled according to the principle of random sampling and skew sampling to analyze the sensitivity of number N, shape parameter and exploration coefficient E to the model. This method was applied to the shale oil resource evaluation in the X230 well block in Heshui area of Ordos Basin. Results show that the number of discoveries affects the size and dispersion of the parameters for oilfield distribution. The distribution model tends to be stable when the number is more than 300. Exploration coefficient has little influence on the sensitivity of distribution model, which is the limitation of taking EUR as evaluation unit. According to the variation of number N with shape parameter β, the number corresponding to cut-off point can be determined, that is, the sum of EUR of all wells is the recoverable resource of the area, which is 6.72×10⁶ t. The result is consistent with the evaluation of oil and gas resource abundance. This method can provide guidance for unconventional oil and gas resources evaluation.
- Pareto distribution model /
- shape parameter /
- sensitivity /
- resource evaluation /
- shale oil /
- Ordos Basin

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图 1 研究区位置(a)及部分井位分布(b)

Figure 1. Location of study area (a) and distribution of some wells (b)

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图 2 概率统计方法拟合对数正态油藏规模分布模型

Figure 2. Fitting lognormal oilfield scale distribution model with probability and statistics methods

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图 3 概率统计方法拟合帕累托油藏规模分布模型

Figure 3. Fitting Pareto oilfield size distribution model with probability and statistics methods

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图 4 自然总体随机抽样分布类型柱状图

Figure 4. Histogram of random sampling distribution type of natural population

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图 5 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.41)交会图

Figure 5. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.41)

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图 6 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.49)交会图

Figure 6. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.49)

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图 7 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.51)交会图

Figure 7. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.51)

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图 8 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.52)交会图

Figure 8. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.52)

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图 10 不同形状参数(β)下油藏发现个数(N)分布模型方差曲线图(F50条件下)

Figure 10. Variance curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameter β (F50)

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图 11 油藏总数为50时勘探系数(E)和形状参数(β)交汇图

Figure 11. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β), N=50

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图 12 油藏总数为100时勘探系数(E)和形状参数(β)交汇图

Figure 12. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β), N=100

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图 13 油藏总数为300时勘探系数(E)和形状参数(β)交汇图

Figure 13. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β), N=300

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图 14 不同油藏发现个数(N)情况下形状参数(β)随勘探系数(E)变化趋势

Figure 14. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β) at various N values

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图 9 不同自然总体分布形状参数(β)下油藏发现个数(N)分布模型(F50条件下)

Figure 9. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameter β (F50)

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表 1 鄂尔多斯盆地合水地区X230井区单井EUR统计

Table 1. EUR statistics of single well in X230 well block in Heshui area, Ordos Basin

井名	EUR/t	井名	EUR/t	井名	EUR/t	井名	EUR/t
GP43-57	8 751.7	GP41-52	15 977.5	GP42-65	22 327.4	GP45-64	19 527.5
GP43-55	12 800.0	GP45-66	13 735.8	GP47-64	8 450.4	GP40-73	13 807.6
GP43-54	13 334.5	GP41-54	13 060.2	GP42-64	26 264.0	GP40-71	8 984.6
GP43-60	9 212.0	GP40-54	4 545.9	GP42-62	21 299.4	GP41-65	21 791.2
GP43-61	13 845.8	GP46-64	12 090.1	GP42-58	16 019.4	GP39-55	23 282.1
GP42-61	12 353.4	GP43-67	30 121.2	GP41-56	2 996.0	GP39-56	31 766.3
GP42-60	18 179.5	GP43-68	21 049.4	GP41-55	8 079.6	GP39-53	33 072.2
GP43-58	13 005.3	GP39-54	10 195.8	GP40-58	1 332.0	GP40-74	21 490.4
GP44-65	12 748.1	GP41-59	14 085.6	GP41-57	624.0	GP41-66	36 074.1
GP43-56	11 636.4	GP45-68	8 356.9	GP41-61	9 828.2	GP39-64	18 732.1
GP47-65	2 455.0	GP44-67	33 489.4	GP40-60	1 599.0	GP39-52	49 589.3
GP43-59	10 654.9	GP41-70	11 303.6	GP41-63	19 516.0	GCH1-1	15 586.3
GP43-66	10 930.9	GP46-66	25 024.9	GP46-65	7 261.6	GP39-65	34 912.2
GP42-56	8 385.6	GP41-53	12 911.3	GP41-58	711.0	GP40-68	15 481.1
GP42-57	5 419.4	GP41-68	27 809.8	GP41-60	4 630.6	GP40-63	28 953.6
GP43-65	11 636.4	GP41-64	31 049.4	GP40-61	4 758.6	GP40-66	29 817.9
GP42-59	21 292.5	GP41-69	9 070.4	GP40-56	5 101.1	GP40-67	14 928.2
GP45-65	12 834.0	GP45-67	18 653.4	GP40-62	8 84.0	GP41-73	13 295.7
GP46-67	11 796.1	GP43-62	25 517.3	GP43-53	20 720.1	GP40-65	22 073.9
GP44-66	24 684.8	GP44-68	17 836.8	GP41-62	6 012.0	GP43-72	39 634.2
GP40-59	4 138.0

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表 2 鄂尔多斯盆地合水地区X230井区N为300时不同勘探系数(E)下可采资源量

Table 2. Recoverable resources under different exploration factors (E) when N=300, X230 well block, Heshui area, Ordos Basin

油藏发现数(N)/个	勘探系数(E)	可采资源量/10⁶ t	平均可采资源量/10⁶ t
300	0.25	5.18	6.72
	0.50	5.60
	0.75	6.05
	1.00	6.61
	1.25	6.96
	1.50	7.39
	1.75	7.85
	2.00	8.15

下载: 导出CSV

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