Petroleum allocation method for exploration strategic planning
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摘要: 在油气勘探战略规划研究中，需要综合分析不同区带的勘探形势、资源基础、工程技术条件，确立未来一个时期资源接替序列、油气勘探重点和发展目标。通过不同区带勘探现状、勘探潜力进行定量计算，建立了一种勘探战略规划中的资源配置方法。该方法首先建立了包含资源探明程度、探井密度、三维地震覆盖密度等3个关键参数的勘探现状指数公式，对当前的勘探状态进行定量计算；其次建立了勘探潜力定量评价公式，综合纳入了反映勘探状态的阶段探明速度、资源潜力、工程技术适应性等参数；最后将勘探现状指数与勘探潜力指数置于统一评价平台，建立了勘探现状指数和勘探潜力指数交会图版，形成了8个油气资源配置区，按照勘探状态对比定策略、潜力定量评价定目标的思路，确立了一个时期内油气勘探发展重点与勘探部署时序，满足了不同区带间状态明确、潜力定量、技术可行的资源配置需求。该评价方法具有普适性、评价结果具有唯一性的特点。Abstract: During petroleum exploration strategic planning and study, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze on exploration status, resource basis and engineering technology conditions of various plays, in order to determine resource replacement sequence, petroleum exploration focus and development targets in the future. According to quantitative calculation on exploration status and potential of different plays, a resource allocation method in exploration strategic planning was established. In this method, an exploration status index formula for three key parameters, namely, resource proven degree, exploration well density and 3D seismic coverage density was firstly constructed for quantitative calculation on current exploration status. Secondly, a quantitative evaluation formula for exploration potential was established and incorporated comprehensively with some parameters like interim proven speed that reflected exploration status, resource potential and engineering technologic adaptability. Finally, exploration status index and potential index were put in unified evaluation platform in order to construct a cross plot for these two indexes, and then eight petroleum resource allocation areas were formed. According to the thinking of the strategy defined by the comparison on exploration status and the target by quantitative potential evaluation, petroleum exploration and development focus and exploration allocation sequence in certain period were determined to meet resource allocation requirement on clear status, quantitative potential and feasible technology for various plays. This evaluation method has the characteristics of universality and unique evaluation result.
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图 1 我国部分重点增储潜力区带资源配置图版
Ⅰ1区.高勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力大，可适度加大三新领域勘探力度；Ⅰ2区.高勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力小，可维持适当投资，保持勘探节奏；Ⅱ1区.中高勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力大，可适度加大三新领域勘探力度；Ⅱ2区.中高勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力小，可维持适当投资，保持勘探节奏；Ⅲ1区.中等勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力大，可加大勘探突破和区带拓展力度；Ⅲ2区.中等勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力小，保持持续勘探；Ⅳ1区.低勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力大，可加大风险勘探力度；Ⅳ2区.低勘探程度阶段，勘探潜力小，保持持续探索
Figure 1. Resource allocation chart of some key potential plays for increasing reserves in China
表 1 我国部分油气勘探区带勘探现状指数判识
Table 1. Identification on exploration status index in some petroleum exploration areas in China
分类 勘探程度 勘探现状指数 区带/ 个 面积/104 km2 累计探明储量 阶段探明速度/% 石油/104 t 天然气/108 m3 Ⅰ 高 ＞0.5 10 3.21 55.23 5 901 0.2~0.5 Ⅱ 中高 0.25~0.5 13 4.42 26.36 7 504 0.5~1.0 Ⅲ 中等 0.1~0.25 24 13.09 4.18 8 417 0.5~1.3 Ⅳ 低 ＜0.1 21 17.14 1.17 2 921 0~0.5 合计 68 37.86 86.94 24 743 
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表 2 工程技术适应性(Rzi)影响因子赋值标准
Table 2. Assignment standards for impact factors of engineering technology adaptability (Rzi)
影响因子 取值范围 [1, 0.75) [0.75, 0.5) [0.5, 0.25) (0.25, 0] 关键技术(E1) 地表条件好且无施工限制；地下目标易于识别；地层可钻性好；测录试工程技术不受限 地表条件较好且无施工限制；地下目标较易识别；地层可钻性较好；测录试工程技术基本不受限 地表条件复杂或施工有限制；地下目标难于识别；地层可钻性较差；测录试工程技术受限较大 地表条件十分复杂或施工受限制；地下目标很难识别；地层可钻性非常差；测录试工程无法正常开展 地质认识(E2) 地质结构简单，受单一构造控制；地质认识成熟，勘探思路与方法适应 地质结构较复杂，构造活动中等；地质认识较成熟，勘探思路与方法较适应 地质结构复杂，构造活动较强；地质认识有待深化，勘探思路与方法有待完善 地质结构非常复杂，构造活动强烈；地质认识亟待深化，勘探思路与方法亟待形成
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表 3 我国部分石油天然气区带勘探潜力评价指数
Table 3. Evaluation index of exploration potential for some oil and gas plays in China
石油区带 勘探潜力指数权重/% 天然气区带 勘探潜力指数权重/% A1 25.34 B1 20.0 A2 9.41 B2 16.5 A3 6.49 B3 15.1 A4 6.11 B4 14.6 A5 5.85 B5 10.0 A6 5.70 B6 5.3 A7 5.19 B7 5.2 A8 4.95 B8 3.7 A9 3.31 B9 3.0 A10 2.86 B10 3.0 … … … 合计 100.00 合计 100.0
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