Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding

ZHAO Linjie; WANG Baohua; LI Hao; LIU Chaoying; ZHOU Xiaojin

doi:10.11781/sysydz202303587

Volume 45 Issue 3

May 2023

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Article Navigation > PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT > 2023 > 45(3): 587-592

ZHAO Linjie, WANG Baohua, LI Hao, LIU Chaoying, ZHOU Xiaojin. Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2023, 45(3): 587-592. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202303587

Citation:

ZHAO Linjie, WANG Baohua, LI Hao, LIU Chaoying, ZHOU Xiaojin. Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2023, 45(3): 587-592. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202303587

Citation:

PDF( 493 KB)

Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202303587

1.
Wuxi Research Institute of Petroleum Geology, SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214126, China
2.
SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Beijing 102206, China

Received Date: 2023-01-17
Rev Recd Date: 2023-05-04
Publish Date: 2023-05-28

Abstract

Abstract

The result of mining right bidding, affected by many factors, has strong uncertainty. Especially in areas with low exploration degree, how to accurately carry out block economic evaluation is a key issue in current research. Based on the expected monetary value (EMV) method, this paper considers the "risk-value" two-factor model to quantify the geological risk, uses the probability distribution model to quantify the uncertainty of resources, defines the basis for the selection of key parameters, sorts out the economic evaluation scheme for shale gas blocks in areas with low exploration degree, and carries out the application to a shale gas block in the Guizhong Depression in Dianqiangui Basin, southern China. The results show that the method comprehensively considers multiple scenarios under different combinations of schemes, such as resource potential, engineering and technical conditions, development scheme, expected economic value, and oil and gas subsidy policies. The multiple sets of economic evaluation schemes formed can provide diversified block economic evaluation parameter data for decision makers, and can effectively guide the decision-making of block bidding scheme.
- expected monetary value(EMV) method,
- economic evaluation,
- shale gas block bidding,
- exploration and development of oil and gas

FullText(HTML)

References(21)

References

[1]	郭旭升, 蔡勋育, 刘金连, 等. 中国石化"十三五"天然气勘探进展与前景展望[J]. 天然气工业, 2021, 41(8): 12-22. doi: 10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2021.08.002 GUO Xusheng, CAI Xunyu, LIU Jinlian, et al. Natural gas exploration progress of SINOPEC during the 13th Five-Year Plan and prospect forecast during the 14th Five-Year Plan[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2021, 41(8): 12-22. doi: 10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2021.08.002
[2]	张金川, 陈世敬, 李中明, 等. 页岩气资源智能评价[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2021, 11(4): 476-486. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202104002.htm ZHANG Jinchuan, CHEN Shijing, LI Zhongminget al. Intelligent evaluation of shale gas resources[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2021, 11(4): 476-486. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202104002.htm
[3]	周庆凡. 页岩油气资源评价基本问题的讨论[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2022, 43(1): 26-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202201001.htm ZHOU Qingfan. Discussion on key issues of shale oil/gas resource assessment[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2022, 43(1): 26-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202201001.htm
[4]	史淼, 张金川, 袁野, 等. 上扬子黔西北地区海相与海陆过渡相页岩气储层孔隙特征差异性研究[J]. 特种油气藏, 2022, 29(3): 9-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ202203002.htm SHI Miao, ZHANG Jinchuan, YUAN Ye, et al. Study on the difference of pore characteristics between marine and marine-continental transitional shale gas reservoirs in Upper Northwest Guizhou[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2022, 29(3): 9-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ202203002.htm
[5]	朱倩. 海外油气田项目经济评价方法应用探讨[J]. 当代石油石化, 2019, 27(8): 35-39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6809.2019.08.006 ZHU Qian. The application of economic evaluation methods in overseas oil & gas projects[J]. Petroleum & Petrochemical Today, 2019, 27(8): 35-39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6809.2019.08.006
[6]	刘晓冬, 宋旭. 现金流量法在油气储量经济评价中的应用[J]. 天然气工业, 2006, 26(7): 142-144. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200607046.htm LIU Xiaodong, SONG Xu. Application of cash flow method in oil/gas reserves economic assessment: taking the block Zhao 40 as an example[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2006, 26(7): 142-144. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200607046.htm
[7]	马宏伟. 海外油气勘探项目经济评价方法差异分析[J]. 当代石油石化, 2008, 16(3): 30-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYGD200803011.htm MA Hongwei. Difference analysis of economic evaluation methods for overseas oil and gas exploration projects[J]. Petroleum and Petrochemical Today, 2008, 16(3): 30-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYGD200803011.htm
[8]	蔡利学, 闫相宾. 新区预探圈闭优选的含油气概率与战略价值评价方法[J]. 大庆石油学院学报, 2007, 31(2): 28-30. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQSY200702008.htm CAI Lixue, YAN Xiangbin. Optimization of traps to drill in frontier areas: the recovery probability of hydrocarbon-strategic value[J]. Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute, 2007, 31(2): 28-30. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQSY200702008.htm
[9]	徐宁, 史卜庆, 赖泽武, 等. 海外勘探新项目的经济评价方法发展与应用[J]. 国际石油经济, 2017, 25(11): 66-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GJJJ201711012.htm XU Ning, SHI Buqing, LAI Zewu, et al. The development and application of economic evaluation methods for the new exploration projects abroad[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2017, 25(11): 66-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GJJJ201711012.htm
[10]	蔡进功, 吴锦莲, 晁静. 国际油公司油气资源经济评价现状[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2002, 29(5): 96-98. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200205036.htm CAI Jingong, WU Jinlian, CHAO Jing. Oil and gas resources economic evaluation characteristics of international petroleum companies[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2002, 29(5): 96-98. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200205036.htm
[11]	杨双, 闫相宾, 刘志鹏, 等. 多层圈闭资源量计算方法研究: 以两层圈闭为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2016, 38(5): 698-702. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201605698 YANG Shuang, YAN Xiangbin, LIU Zhipeng, et al. Resource calculation methods for multilayer traps: case study of two-layer traps[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2016, 38(5): 698-702. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201605698
[12]	徐旭辉, 蔡利学, 刘超英, 等. 油气勘探目标评价与优选系统[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2015, 36(3): 517-524. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201503024.htm XU Xuhui, CAI Lixue, LIU Chaoying, et al. Evaluation and selection system for petroleum exploration targets[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2015, 36(3): 517-524. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201503024.htm
[13]	李建忠, 董大忠, 陈更生, 等. 中国页岩气资源前景与战略地位[J]. 天然气工业, 2009, 29(5): 11-16. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200905003.htm LI Jianzhong, DONG Dazhong, CHEN Gengsheng, et al. Prospects and strategic position of shale gas resources in China[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2009, 29(5): 11-16. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200905003.htm
[14]	卢振东, 刘成林, 曾晓祥, 等. 页岩油资源规模分布模型及敏感性研究[J]. 石油实验地质, 2022, 44(4): 730-738. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202204730 LU Zhendong, LIU Chenglin, ZENG Xiaoxiang, et al. Shale oil size distribution models and their sensitivities[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2022, 44(4): 730-738. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202204730
[15]	邹才能, 董大忠, 王社教, 等. 中国页岩气形成机理、地质特征及资源潜力[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2010, 37(6): 641-653. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201006003.htm ZOU Caineng, DONG Dazhong, WANG Shejiao, et al. Geological characteristics, formation mechanism and resource potential of shale gas in China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2010, 37(6): 641-653. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201006003.htm
[16]	关静. 最小经济储量规模计算在油田勘探开发中的应用[J]. 新疆有色金属, 2014, 37(3): 85-87. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJYS201403030.htm GUAN Jing. Application of calculation of minimum economic reserve size in oilfield exploration and development[J]. Xinjiang Youse Jinshu, 2014, 37(3): 85-87. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJYS201403030.htm
[17]	STIGLIANO H, SINGH V, YEMEZ I, et al. Establishing minimum economic field size and analyzing its role in exploration-project risks assessment: a practical approach[J]. The Leading Edge, 2016, 35(2): 180-189. http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Virendra_Singh47/publication/292947583_Establishing_minimum_economic_field_size_and_analyzing_its_role_in_exploration-project_risks_assessment_A_practical_approach/links/585a4e6f08aeffd7c4fe63c3.pdf
[18]	郭军, 陈相霖, 赵训林, 等. 桂中—南盘江地区黔水地1井钻井关键技术[J]. 断块油气田, 2021, 28(3): 423-427. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT202103027.htm GUO Jun, CHEN Xianglin, ZHAO Xunlin, et al. Key drilling technologies for well Qianshuidi 1 in Guizhong-Nanpanjiang area[J]. Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field, 2021, 28(3): 423-427. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT202103027.htm
[19]	王劲铸, 李小刚, 徐正建, 等. 南盘江坳陷东兰地区下石炭统鹿寨组页岩气成藏条件及有利区预测[J]. 地球科学, 2021, 46(5): 1814-1828. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQKX202105021.htm WANG Jinzhu, LI Xiaogang, XU Zhengjian, et al. Shale gas accumulation conditions and favorable-zone prediction in Lower Carboniferous Luzhai Formation in Donglan area of Nanpanjiang Depression, China[J]. Earth Science, 2021, 46(5): 1814-1828. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQKX202105021.htm
[20]	谭笑林, 胡煜昭, 周亮, 等. 高演化地区古油藏Re-Os年代学与REE特征分析: 以南盘江盆地板街古油藏为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2022, 44(5): 877-886. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202205877 TAN Xiaolin, HU Yuzhao, ZHOU Liang, et al. Re-Os chronology and REE analysis of paleo-oil reservoir in high evolution areas: a case study of Banjie paleo-oil reservoir, Nanpanjiang Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2022, 44(5): 877-886. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202205877
[21]	陶金雨, 胡宗全, 申宝剑, 等. 滇黔桂盆地桂中坳陷下石炭统台槽相页岩沉积特征与沉积模式[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2022, 43(2): 365-377. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202202010.htm TAO Jinyu, HU Zongquan, SHEN Baojian, et al. Sedimentary characteristics and model of platform-trough shale in the Lower Carboniferous, Guizhong Depression, Dianqiangui Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2022, 43(2): 365-377. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202202010.htm

Relative Articles

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Cited by
Periodical cited type(1)
1. 封永泰，赵琳洁，王保华，李龙龙，段铁军. 多因素敏感性分析在低勘探程度区块价值评估中的应用与探讨. 石油实验地质. 2025(02): 426-432 . 本站查看
Other cited types(0)

Proportional views

Proportional views

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Figures(5)

Citation

XML

PDF-CN

Article Metrics

Article views (836) PDF downloads(56)

Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202303587

Abstract

References

Relative Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(1)

Other cited types(0)

Proportional views

Catalog

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Related

Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202303587

Abstract

References

Relative Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(1)

Other cited types(0)

Proportional views

Catalog

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Related

Export File

Citation

Format

Content