Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding
-
摘要: 矿权竞标结果受多种因素影响，具有较强的不确定性。特别是在低勘探程度区，如何准确开展区块经济评价是目前亟待解决的一个重点问题。以预期货币价值法(EMV)为基础，考虑“风险—价值”双因素模型量化地质风险，运用概率分布模型量化资源量的不确定性，明确关键参数的选取依据，梳理出针对低勘探程度区页岩气区块的经济评价方案，并应用于南方滇黔桂盆地桂中坳陷页岩气某区块。该方法综合考虑了资源潜力、工程技术条件、开发方案、预期经济价值及油气补贴政策等不同方案组合下的多个场景，形成的多套经济评价方案可为决策者提供多样化的区块经济评价参数数据，能有效指导区块竞标方案决策。Abstract: The result of mining right bidding, affected by many factors, has strong uncertainty. Especially in areas with low exploration degree, how to accurately carry out block economic evaluation is a key issue in current research. Based on the expected monetary value (EMV) method, this paper considers the "risk-value" two-factor model to quantify the geological risk, uses the probability distribution model to quantify the uncertainty of resources, defines the basis for the selection of key parameters, sorts out the economic evaluation scheme for shale gas blocks in areas with low exploration degree, and carries out the application to a shale gas block in the Guizhong Depression in Dianqiangui Basin, southern China. The results show that the method comprehensively considers multiple scenarios under different combinations of schemes, such as resource potential, engineering and technical conditions, development scheme, expected economic value, and oil and gas subsidy policies. The multiple sets of economic evaluation schemes formed can provide diversified block economic evaluation parameter data for decision makers, and can effectively guide the decision-making of block bidding scheme.
-
图 1 2020年底以来全国石油、天然气探矿权出让区块数量统计
Figure 1. Statistics on number of oil and gas mining rights transferred blocks in China since the end of 2020
图 2 典型勘探区块预期货币价值(EMV)评估方法决策树
Figure 2. Decision tree of EMV evaluation method for typical exploration blocks
图 3 地质评价参数及地质资源量概率分布曲线
Figure 3. Probability distribution curves of geological evaluation parameters and resources under logarithmic coordinates
图 4 页岩气商业成功概率获取模型
Figure 4. Acquisition model for probability of shale gas commercial success
-
[1] 郭旭升, 蔡勋育, 刘金连, 等. 中国石化"十三五"天然气勘探进展与前景展望[J]. 天然气工业, 2021, 41(8): 12-22. doi: 10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2021.08.002GUO Xusheng, CAI Xunyu, LIU Jinlian, et al. Natural gas exploration progress of SINOPEC during the 13th Five-Year Plan and prospect forecast during the 14th Five-Year Plan[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2021, 41(8): 12-22. doi: 10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2021.08.002 [2] 张金川, 陈世敬, 李中明, 等. 页岩气资源智能评价[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2021, 11(4): 476-486. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202104002.htmZHANG Jinchuan, CHEN Shijing, LI Zhongminget al. Intelligent evaluation of shale gas resources[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2021, 11(4): 476-486. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202104002.htm [3] 周庆凡. 页岩油气资源评价基本问题的讨论[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2022, 43(1): 26-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202201001.htmZHOU Qingfan. Discussion on key issues of shale oil/gas resource assessment[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2022, 43(1): 26-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202201001.htm [4] 史淼, 张金川, 袁野, 等. 上扬子黔西北地区海相与海陆过渡相页岩气储层孔隙特征差异性研究[J]. 特种油气藏, 2022, 29(3): 9-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ202203002.htmSHI Miao, ZHANG Jinchuan, YUAN Ye, et al. Study on the difference of pore characteristics between marine and marine-continental transitional shale gas reservoirs in Upper Northwest Guizhou[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2022, 29(3): 9-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ202203002.htm [5] 朱倩. 海外油气田项目经济评价方法应用探讨[J]. 当代石油石化, 2019, 27(8): 35-39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6809.2019.08.006ZHU Qian. The application of economic evaluation methods in overseas oil & gas projects[J]. Petroleum & Petrochemical Today, 2019, 27(8): 35-39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6809.2019.08.006 [6] 刘晓冬, 宋旭. 现金流量法在油气储量经济评价中的应用[J]. 天然气工业, 2006, 26(7): 142-144. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200607046.htmLIU Xiaodong, SONG Xu. Application of cash flow method in oil/gas reserves economic assessment: taking the block Zhao 40 as an example[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2006, 26(7): 142-144. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200607046.htm [7] 马宏伟. 海外油气勘探项目经济评价方法差异分析[J]. 当代石油石化, 2008, 16(3): 30-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYGD200803011.htmMA Hongwei. Difference analysis of economic evaluation methods for overseas oil and gas exploration projects[J]. Petroleum and Petrochemical Today, 2008, 16(3): 30-33. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYGD200803011.htm [8] 蔡利学, 闫相宾. 新区预探圈闭优选的含油气概率与战略价值评价方法[J]. 大庆石油学院学报, 2007, 31(2): 28-30. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQSY200702008.htmCAI Lixue, YAN Xiangbin. Optimization of traps to drill in frontier areas: the recovery probability of hydrocarbon-strategic value[J]. Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute, 2007, 31(2): 28-30. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQSY200702008.htm [9] 徐宁, 史卜庆, 赖泽武, 等. 海外勘探新项目的经济评价方法发展与应用[J]. 国际石油经济, 2017, 25(11): 66-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GJJJ201711012.htmXU Ning, SHI Buqing, LAI Zewu, et al. The development and application of economic evaluation methods for the new exploration projects abroad[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2017, 25(11): 66-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GJJJ201711012.htm [10] 蔡进功, 吴锦莲, 晁静. 国际油公司油气资源经济评价现状[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2002, 29(5): 96-98. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200205036.htmCAI Jingong, WU Jinlian, CHAO Jing. Oil and gas resources economic evaluation characteristics of international petroleum companies[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2002, 29(5): 96-98. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200205036.htm [11] 杨双, 闫相宾, 刘志鹏, 等. 多层圈闭资源量计算方法研究: 以两层圈闭为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2016, 38(5): 698-702. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201605698YANG Shuang, YAN Xiangbin, LIU Zhipeng, et al. Resource calculation methods for multilayer traps: case study of two-layer traps[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2016, 38(5): 698-702. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201605698 [12] 徐旭辉, 蔡利学, 刘超英, 等. 油气勘探目标评价与优选系统[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2015, 36(3): 517-524. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201503024.htmXU Xuhui, CAI Lixue, LIU Chaoying, et al. Evaluation and selection system for petroleum exploration targets[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2015, 36(3): 517-524. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201503024.htm [13] 李建忠, 董大忠, 陈更生, 等. 中国页岩气资源前景与战略地位[J]. 天然气工业, 2009, 29(5): 11-16. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200905003.htmLI Jianzhong, DONG Dazhong, CHEN Gengsheng, et al. Prospects and strategic position of shale gas resources in China[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2009, 29(5): 11-16. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200905003.htm [14] 卢振东, 刘成林, 曾晓祥, 等. 页岩油资源规模分布模型及敏感性研究[J]. 石油实验地质, 2022, 44(4): 730-738. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202204730LU Zhendong, LIU Chenglin, ZENG Xiaoxiang, et al. Shale oil size distribution models and their sensitivities[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2022, 44(4): 730-738. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202204730 [15] 邹才能, 董大忠, 王社教, 等. 中国页岩气形成机理、地质特征及资源潜力[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2010, 37(6): 641-653. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201006003.htmZOU Caineng, DONG Dazhong, WANG Shejiao, et al. Geological characteristics, formation mechanism and resource potential of shale gas in China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2010, 37(6): 641-653. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201006003.htm [16] 关静. 最小经济储量规模计算在油田勘探开发中的应用[J]. 新疆有色金属, 2014, 37(3): 85-87. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJYS201403030.htmGUAN Jing. Application of calculation of minimum economic reserve size in oilfield exploration and development[J]. Xinjiang Youse Jinshu, 2014, 37(3): 85-87. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJYS201403030.htm [17] STIGLIANO H, SINGH V, YEMEZ I, et al. Establishing minimum economic field size and analyzing its role in exploration-project risks assessment: a practical approach[J]. The Leading Edge, 2016, 35(2): 180-189. http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Virendra_Singh47/publication/292947583_Establishing_minimum_economic_field_size_and_analyzing_its_role_in_exploration-project_risks_assessment_A_practical_approach/links/585a4e6f08aeffd7c4fe63c3.pdf [18] 郭军, 陈相霖, 赵训林, 等. 桂中—南盘江地区黔水地1井钻井关键技术[J]. 断块油气田, 2021, 28(3): 423-427. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT202103027.htmGUO Jun, CHEN Xianglin, ZHAO Xunlin, et al. Key drilling technologies for well Qianshuidi 1 in Guizhong-Nanpanjiang area[J]. Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field, 2021, 28(3): 423-427. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT202103027.htm [19] 王劲铸, 李小刚, 徐正建, 等. 南盘江坳陷东兰地区下石炭统鹿寨组页岩气成藏条件及有利区预测[J]. 地球科学, 2021, 46(5): 1814-1828. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQKX202105021.htmWANG Jinzhu, LI Xiaogang, XU Zhengjian, et al. Shale gas accumulation conditions and favorable-zone prediction in Lower Carboniferous Luzhai Formation in Donglan area of Nanpanjiang Depression, China[J]. Earth Science, 2021, 46(5): 1814-1828. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQKX202105021.htm [20] 谭笑林, 胡煜昭, 周亮, 等. 高演化地区古油藏Re-Os年代学与REE特征分析: 以南盘江盆地板街古油藏为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2022, 44(5): 877-886. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202205877TAN Xiaolin, HU Yuzhao, ZHOU Liang, et al. Re-Os chronology and REE analysis of paleo-oil reservoir in high evolution areas: a case study of Banjie paleo-oil reservoir, Nanpanjiang Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2022, 44(5): 877-886. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202205877 [21] 陶金雨, 胡宗全, 申宝剑, 等. 滇黔桂盆地桂中坳陷下石炭统台槽相页岩沉积特征与沉积模式[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2022, 43(2): 365-377. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202202010.htmTAO Jinyu, HU Zongquan, SHEN Baojian, et al. Sedimentary characteristics and model of platform-trough shale in the Lower Carboniferous, Guizhong Depression, Dianqiangui Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2022, 43(2): 365-377. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202202010.htm -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(5)
计量
- 文章访问数: 307
- HTML全文浏览量: 125
- PDF下载量: 33
- 被引次数: 0
苏公网安备32021102000780号